Abstract: The evaluation of water resources carrying capacity is the key to understand the development level of water resources and plays an important role in the sustainable development of water resources. Starting from the four aspects of economy, society, water resources and ecology, 11 indicators were selected to form an evaluation system. The combination weighting TOPSIS method and obstacle degree model were used to analyze and study the water resources carrying capacity of Shanxi province from 2011 to 2020, and the main obstacle factors were diagnosed. The results showed that the water resources carrying capacity of Shanxi province showed an increasing trend from 2011 to 2020. The change trend and growth range of different subsystems are different. The economic subsystem presents a stable upward trend, the social subsystem shows a downward trend, and the water resources subsystem and the ecological subsystem have a large fluctuation. The main obstacle factors of water resources carrying capacity in Shanxi province from 2011 to 2020 were GDP per capita, water consumption per ten thousand yuan of GDP, water consumption per capita, effective irrigation area/sown area, annual precipitation, urbanization rate, water resources per capita, water supply module and fertilizer application per sown area. The research shows that Shanxi province should optimize the industrial structure, improve the utilization rate of water resources and construct the water security system to improve the carrying capacity of water resources, so as to ensure the sustainable development of economic society.

Key words: water resources carrying capacity, combination weighting TOPSIS model, obstacle factors, Shanxi province