关键词: 鸡肉价格, 价格波动特征, 价格预测, ARMA模型

Abstract: This article analyzed the chicken price fluctuations by taking the chicken market price in China as the research object, based on the chicken market price data from 2013 to 2021, and using census X12 seasonal adjustment method and HP filter method. The study found that chicken price had obvious seasonal trend, with the price in January and February higher, but in June lower and showed a gradual upward trend in the long term. Then, the ARMA model was used to forecast the chicken price from December 2021 to April 2022. The conclusion showed that during the period from December 2021 to April 2022, the chicken price in China was basically stable, but showed a downward trend. Finally, according to the research conclusions, some policy suggestions were put forward, such as the establishment of multi-category price monitoring and early warning system, the improvement of major epidemic disease monitoring, prevention and control management mechanism, the establishment of chicken production and sales guidance and suggestion systemto guide consumers’ reasonable expectations.

Key words: chicken prices, price fluctuation characteristics, price forecast, ARMA model