基于AHP-SLIM的抽水蓄能电站充排水人因失误预测分析

doi:10.19640/j.cnki.jtau.2023.03.013

天津农学院学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (3): 70-74.doi: 10.19640/j.cnki.jtau.2023.03.013

基于AHP-SLIM的抽水蓄能电站充排水人因失误预测分析

马慧鑫, 余萍, 梁静^通信作者, 邱兰清

天津农学院水利工程学院,天津 300392

收稿日期:2021-11-11 出版日期:2023-06-30 发布日期:2023-09-06
通讯作者: 梁静（1988—）,女,讲师,博士,主要从事水利工程相关风险研究。E-mail：liangjing_0805@126.com。
作者简介:马慧鑫（1999—）,女,硕士在读,主要从事人因风险分析方面的研究。E-mail：1364581053@qq.com。
基金资助:
“十三五”国家水体污染控制与治理重大专项（2017ZX07106003）; 天津市教委科研计划项目（2022KJ023）

Human error prediction in charging and drainage of pumped storage power station based on AHP-SLIM

Ma Huixin, Yu Ping, Liang Jing^{Corresponding Author}, Qiu Lanqing

College of Water Conservancy Engineering, Tianjin Agricultural University, Tianjin 300392, China

Received:2021-11-11 Online:2023-06-30 Published:2023-09-06

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 随着我国水利工程事业的高速发展,水利工程中的安全问题越来越被重视。本文将人因可靠性分析与抽水蓄能电站结合,利用SLIM（Success likelihood index method,SLIM）方法对抽水蓄能电站充排水作业人员进行可靠性分析。由于SLIM方法更多依赖于专家的主观意见,为提高结果的准确性,本文采用层次分析法与SLIM相结合的方式筛选出部分不合格的专家打分结果,再以PSF为准则层计算出权重值和对失误的影响程度,得到失误发生概率。分析结果证明“组织完善性、人机界面（MMI）与运行支持的完善性、经验培训、各成员合作质量”对发生概率较高的失误影响程度较大,即人为因素对水电站实际操作有重要影响,工程上可主要通过提高人因可靠性来降低事故发生概率。

关键词: 失误预测, 抽水蓄能电站, 人因可靠性分析, 成功似然指数法

Abstract: With the rapid development of water conservancy engineering in China, more and more attention has been paid to the safety of water conservancy engineering. In this paper, human factor reliability analysis was combined with pumped storage power station, and Success likelihood index method（SLIM）was used to analyze the reliability of charging and drainage personnel in pumped storage power station. Since SLIM relied more on experts’ subjective opinions, in order to improve the accuracy of results, Analytic hierarchy process（AHP）was combined with SLIM to screen out some unqualified experts' scoring results, and then PSFs were chosen as the criterion layer to calculate the weight value and the degree of influence on the error to obtain the probability. Analysis results showed that the influence of “Integrity, man-machine interface（MMI）, operation support the integrity of cooperation quality, experience training and members’ cooperation quality” on the probability of high error degree was bigger. The human factors have important effects on actual operations of hydropower station. Thus, engineering could improve reliability of human factors to reduce accidents.

Key words: error prediction, pumped storage power station, human reliability analysis, success likelihood index method

中图分类号:

X914

马慧鑫, 余萍, 梁静, 邱兰清. 基于AHP-SLIM的抽水蓄能电站充排水人因失误预测分析[J]. 天津农学院学报, 2023, 30(3): 70-74.

Ma Huixin, Yu Ping, Liang Jing, Qiu Lanqing. Human error prediction in charging and drainage of pumped storage power station based on AHP-SLIM[J]. Journal of Tianjin Agricultural University, 2023, 30(3): 70-74.

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http://xuebao.tjau.edu.cn/CN/Y2023/V30/I3/70

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基于AHP-SLIM的抽水蓄能电站充排水人因失误预测分析

Human error prediction in charging and drainage of pumped storage power station based on AHP-SLIM

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